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America’s team vs. the greatest player of all time is a matchup that will have at least a few people in your family group chat fighting. On Monday night, Dallas will travel to Tampa Bay, where the Cowboys will look to flip the script on eight postseason road losses in a row (the last time the Cowboys won a road playoff game Home Improvement was the biggest show on American television). This season, the Cowboys have been one of the best teams in football from a statistical standpoint, as Dallas ranks top-five in points per game (27.5) and points allowed per game (20.1). While their regular season (12-5) is nothing to scoff at, if Mike McCarthy wants to prove he loves winning playoff games as much as he loves eating the last chunk of brisket stuck between his teeth, Dak Prescott will need to be a better quarterback than he’s been lately. Since returning from injury in Week 12, Prescott has thrown 11 interceptions, which is more than any other QB in the NFL over that span…including Davis Mills. Luckily for Dallas, they run the ball more than almost any other team in football (47.67% of the time), and their two-headed backfield will take the pressure off of Dak until he returns to his old form. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard combined for 1,883 rushing yards and 24 total touchdowns this season, and because Tampa Bay’s star defensive tackle Vita Vea is banged up, they are primed for a big day on the ground.
If Kellen Moore can establish the run early on a Bucs defense that’s been mediocre against the run, Dallas will control the clock, and Dak will play up to his contract. Prescott has been a much more effective passer when relieved of pressure. Without pressure on his throws, Prescott has completed 72.6% of his passes and compiled a 105.9 passer rating. When he is pressured, those numbers drop to 49.5% and 52.6. Fortunately for Dak, the Buccaneers have lost their top pass rusher since these teams played at the beginning of the year, as Shaquil Barrett is on injured reserve with an Achilles tendon injury. Defensively, the Cowboys match up nicely against a Tampa Bay team that… let’s face it…is just going to throw the football. The Bucs throw the ball more than any team in the NFL, and the Cowboys are elite at putting pressure on a quarterback and quelling an opposing passing attack. The Cowboys only allow 200.9 passing yards a game, which is crazy to think of with how injured they’ve been at points during the year. Led by Micah Parsons, they sack opposing quarterbacks 8.94% of the time. However, Parsons and Trevon Diggs will still need to have big games because, you know…they are playing the best quarterback of all time.
Speaking of Tom Brady, have I mentioned his perfect 7-0 record against the Cowboys throughout his career? As funny as it sounds, what Brady needs most to win this game won’t be Vita Vea off some rest, Mike Evans finding space against an exceptional Cowboys’ secondary, or even Byron Leftwich’s play calling…it will be a center. Yes, you read that right; the chubby guy that hikes the ball is the X-factor for this one. Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen is expected to return for Tampa Bay on Monday, and if he does, Tom Brady will have the opportunity to do something he hasn’t been able to all year…run the football. The Bucs have only run the ball on 33.30% of their plays this season because both of Jensen’s backups couldn’t run-block against an eighty-four-year-old with arthritis even if they wanted to. When Brady has Leonard Fournette and the run game firing on all cylinders, his receiving weapons become dangerous, and play-action becomes effective. It doesn’t matter who the Bucs are playing; if they can establish the run and Tom Brady has Mike Evans and a healthy Chris Godwin to throw to, they aren’t losing that game.
Just to give you an idea of how crazy things can get during the first weekend of the playoffs, consider this: Underdogs have gone 16-8 against the spread since 2017. That’s outrageous. Vegas likes the Cowboys -2.5, but Tom Brady as an underdog at home is a little too enticing, especially considering the above trend. The Bucs will win a close game by a field goal thanks to an outstanding performance from some of their returning starters and Old Man Brady. Want a chance to put some money in your pocket for a long weekend? Take the Bucs’ Moneyline. Either way, you are going to get $150 back instantly from FanDuel!
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